YES, we do have a real problem!

a) The intelligence community and other terrorist experts recognize the release of smallpox as one of the top risks, right along with exploding a dirty or nuclear bomb; the CDC (Center for Disease Control) web-site acknowledges this fact.

b) After 9/11 the directive from Washington to the CDC was: Develop a plan to protect the American people from terrorist biological threats, which had smallpox (and Anthrax) on top of the list.

c) The CDC (Center for Disease Control) opposes preemptive vaccinations; their opinion (yes, opinion; not a proven fact) is that risks associated with vaccinations outweigh the possibility of terrorists having access to smallpox and using it effectively. “If an outbreak occurs, we’ll rush the vaccine to the affected area,” ( - - suggesting that the vaccine is still effective after exposure - - - which is, to the most part, not correct).

d) MIT and Yale University scientists applied the CDC approach to a hypothetical smallpox attack in which 1,000 people suddenly become infected in a city of 10 million. Results: 367,000 cases of smallpox and 110,000 deaths would result. Results: CDC approach is a total failure.

e) CDC has really failed to develop a method to protect us; while their arguments may be statistically correct, they are merely reasons for not completing the task.

f) Smallpox is an extremely serious disease; for a better understanding, please view pictures and disease details at: http://www.who.int/emc/diseases/smallpox/slideset.

g) Governmental dictatorship. Anybody not feeling protected by the CDC approach, wishing to take the smallpox vaccine at their own risk, even willing to pay for it, is told that our government – CDC – does not allow them to do so.

First some facts about smallpox and smallpox vaccines:

1) The incubation period for smallpox is 12 to 14 days; fever and headache are the major symptoms. During the next 3 to 5 days infected people develop rashes and they become contagious themselves, spreading the disease; this stage is extremely contagious. At first the rash looks inconspicuous and most doctors would not suspect smallpox; the doctor would probably say “Hm, let’s wait and see.” Give it at least two to three more days for an alert doctor to ring the alarm bell and for experts to confirm that we have a true health emergency.

2) Time to recognize the health emergency and speed of vaccinating people is of the essence because vaccines given to infected people AFTER 3 to 4 days of exposure are NOT effective; those people will get smallpox; about 30% of them will die. Even if you should survive, the virus spreads to all organs, and there is tremendous suffering on the part of the patient, with extreme disfiguration for the rest of their lives, with large pox marks the face and body. For details see pictures of smallpox at: http://www.who.int/emc/diseases/smallpox/slideset.

3) Research data suggest that people who had been vaccinated against smallpox more than 10 years ago have lost their immunity; a very small degree of immunity may be retained much longer. Re-vaccinating those people would have a MUCH smaller risk of side effects than for people who have never been vaccinated.

4) Investigators at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious disease recently published data (NEJM, April 25, 2002) that showed that the 14.5 million doses of US vaccine can be diluted tenfold and still be effective (but only to induce immunity, not to treat already infected people).

5) In 2002 the French firm Avantis Pasteur confirmed that they had 75 million doses of smallpox vaccine, willing to sell to the US.

6) By 2003 the US had the capacity to vaccinate a minimum of 145 million people. According to published data, as of 2007 the US stockpiled 280 million units of SP vaccine. In 2007 CDC is telling us that better vaccines - - fewer risks - - are on the way. Will we then wait for even better vaccines? Sit on them too while unprotected? Spend lots of $$ to destroy the 280 million units we have now?

7) All remaining collected supplies of the smallpox virus were supposed to be destroyed or sequestered in two laboratories, one in the United States and one in Russia. Geopolitical events in the last decade and revelations concerning offensive biological warfare programs by certain foreign governments have raised concern that this virus may have fallen into the hands of other foreign states who might seek to use the virus as a biological weapon.

Dr. Ken Alibek, a former senior microbiologist in the Russian Offensive Biological Weapons Program has alleged that, in 1980, the Soviet Union started large-scale production of the smallpox virus and genetic recombination of more potent strains. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, concern exists that this knowledge may be used in other countries. The extent of smallpox stockpiles in other countries is unknown but may have become substantial since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Do a web search for “smallpox biological warfare,” and you’ll find (zkea.com , BBC.com, others) that several other countries are suspect of having the smallpox virus.

8) The ease of aerosolization of the virus is well documented. Researchers estimate that only 10-100 virus particles are necessary to infect someone. Thus, smallpox is a potential biological weapon of staggering danger. Reference: www.emedicinehealth.com.

The problems with the CDC approach.

In 2002 the CDC’s approach was based on the fact that the US had only 14.5 million doses of smallpox vaccine; even though we now have the capacity to vaccinate at least 145 million people, the CDC insists on following the same approach. According to a major science publication (Check, E., Nature, 414, 677), as of 2007 the US is stockpiling 286 million doses of smallpox vaccines.

The CDC model is based on statistical data for naturally occurring smallpox outbreaks that are very limited in terms of initial numbers and of affected area (demographics).

Obviously a terrorist-originated smallpox epidemic would not be localized. For terrorists who have the virus (most likely immunized themselves, not having to worry about getting infected) to release it and spreading it to thousands and thousands of people is not exactly easy, but it could be done.

A major fallacy: the vaccine is still effective after exposure.

A hypothetical case: A person arrested for suspicion of terrorist activities admits to the authorities that, just 4 days ago, several terrorists, in possession of the smallpox virus, were purposely spreading it in a large city, most likely infecting thousands.
Fact: Rushing the vaccine to this city will help to – possibly - prevent a major epidemic, but ALL the people that were infected will get smallpox, scarred for life, and about 30% of them will die. The smallpox vaccine is only effective up to 3 to 4 days after infection.
The CDC approach is based on opinions, not hard facts. While it may be true that terrorists don’t have the smallpox virus, that making quantities necessary for a terrorist attack require more than a basement laboratory, and that spreading the virus may not be that easy, none of that the CDC can guarantee us.

In the light that every vaccinated person is a firewall in itself, not allowing anybody who’d like to take the vaccine, at their own risk and willing to pay for it, is outright arrogant, dictatorial, and totally brainless.

The MIT/Yale test scenario: CDC approach is a failure.

To test the CDC approach, scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Yale University School of Medicine applied the CDC approach to a hypothetical smallpox attack in which 1,000 people suddenly become infected in a city of 10 million. This was a very extensive study, involving departments of epidemiology, public health, public management, and school of medicine; the paper, reference below, is accessible on the internet and is highly recommended for anybody with a background in the sciences. They found that 367,000 cases of smallpox and 110,000 deaths would result. Requiring 5,000 vaccinators, mostly from nursing pools, the outbreak "would take nearly a year to quell."

Reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination. Edward H. Kaplan, David L. Graft, and Lawrence M. Wein. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas162282799.

In a – theoretically possible - smallpox attack, does the CDC look at several hundred thousand deaths and more than 1 million disfigured victims as “expandable?”

Before 9/11, FBI and CIA “experts” didn’t think it possible for terrorists to hijack several airplanes in one day and fly them into pre-determined targets. Relative to that, the following scenario is easy; nothing is there to show that terrorists couldn’t do it.
If in possession of the smallpox virus, only ten terrorists – let’s say 2 each in 5 different cities – could infect 1,000 people/city within one day. Carrying the virus in many forms, totally inconspicuous, none would have to worry about detection if stopped by police for whatever reason. Not to risk any accidental discovery, they could lay low at the end of day one or, going for the whole pie, they could board 10 airline flights going to different cities, spreading more of the virus on the airplanes and in other cities.

If there is no accidental discovery of what has been spread in the first three to four days, ALL the people that were infected would get smallpox; at an absolute minimum there would be 1,700 deaths and 3,300 smallpox-disfigured survivors.

If there is no accidental discovery until rashes in infected people are diagnosed as smallpox, the MIT/Yale model – see above – would apply, with the deaths and smallpox survivors multiplied by five; in essence 1,835,000 cases of smallpox and 550,000 deaths if they stopped at infecting just 5 cities, but quite a bit more if they continued on airline flights to different cities.

AND THE CDC IS NOT DOING EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO PREVENT THIS?

You can find support for vaccinating against smallpox everywhere:
Prof. Fred A. Rosenberg (Professor of Microbiology, California Lutheran University, Thousand Oaks), wrote (L.A. Times, June 20, 2002, page 14):
"We immunize against measles, polio, chicken pox and other diseases. Occasionally there are side effects. The virulence of these diseases pales beside that of smallpox. If we are willing to vaccinate after a potential bioterrorism attack, why not now? Prevention is easier than trying to stop the spread of the disease in a population."

If a disasterous smallpox outbreak like this should happen - - - causing a multiple of the deaths of the 9-11 attacks - - - wouldn’t we quickly learn that "we could have prevented it," "we knew how to do it," “we had all the vaccine we ever needed.”

In a very scary way this reminds me of 9/11. Just prior to 9/11 an FBI agent, Coleen Rowley, had discovered that terrorist suspects were learning to fly airplanes in a highly suspicious manner, predicted what could happen, and raised an alarm. Her boss at the FBI, mostly concerned about getting his face on television for his drug raids, ignored her pleas. So she went over his head to the CIA. CIA higher-ups expressed their opinions and arguments - that this was unlikely to happen - - girl, go through channels, slapped her hand - - - and a few days later 9/11 happened.

Naturally, Ms. Rowley’s boss should have been fired, including the CIA agents that didn’t pay attention to her, and she should have been given the job. But, how could we expect logical actions? Ms. Rowley left the FBI, obviously in disgust, and her boss moved further up the ladder.

The scariest part of all comes with two August 2007 news releases:

Bio-threat preparedness called lacking (8.14.07).
Washington: According to a new audit, the ability to detect a biological attack quickly is years behind schedule because of a lack of leadership by the Homeland Security Department. “The program is falling short of its objectives,” said Homeland Security Inspector General Richard L. Skinner.

CIA Inspector General: ‘Systemic breakdown’ at CIA before Sept. 11 (8.22.07).
Tremendous incompetence at every level; well, we all knew that! But, most disturbing, the report concludes that none of the changes recommended after various hearings have ever been made, and that “to date, no CIA employee has been reprimanded for any failings related to the Sept. 11 attacks.” That, in essence, says that all the screw-ups have been promoted and are given another chance to do so again???

Has the same incompetence spilled over into the CDC? Insubordination at the CDC?
If your boss assigns you a job to do, THEN YOU DO IT. If you can’t do a perfect job, then you do the best job you can do. You don’t find excuses for not doing so. That would be reason to get fired! If it comes to national security, not fulfilling an assigned job is insubordination. In many scientists’ evaluations it appears that those who were assigned the job to develop a program to protect us against a possible smallpox attack cannot overcome the hurdles to arrive at the best possible solution; instead of admitting they are not capable of fulfilling a critical task, they are trying to lull us into believing their opinions are sound while leaving us vulnerable and unprotected. For example, relative to foreign matters, it is obvious that Western civilization has reached a pivotal time in its history due to the threat of religious fanaticism and its followers. The laws of our society – U S and Western Europe – are at odds with fundamentalism, i.e. irrational, extremist religious views that tolerate no religion, no group except their own. Civilized society must act against a rising intolerance by religious fanatics and demand that religious fanatics observe the laws of a particular country over bowing to a religious observance that permits wholesale murder. Unfortunately, many “leaders” choose to bury their heads in the sand. It is not just the House and Senate of the US Government, it is heads of state all over the world that are paralyzed with fear and justify their inaction with hopeful thinking and appeasement.

We contacted CDC.

We e-mailed the CDC and asked a few key questions: see below. We have not heard from them; if we receive a response, we will post it here.

We can do a better, much better job to protect the American people!

Educating people about what could happen if terrorists were successful, informing them about possible risks, making smallpox vaccine available on a voluntary basis, explaining why this is everybody’s war, and why every vaccinated person in itself is a firewall against the success of a terrorist-initiated smallpox attack, would surely get us to a vaccination level that would prevent any smallpox attack from becoming a real epidemic.

Re-vaccinating people who had been vaccinated before should have a # 1 priority; risks would be low, and the firewall would be extremely effective with a vaccination level of about 30%.

Use the smallpox vaccine in a 1:10 dilution. This would take just a few days longer to build immunity, but it would again decrease the possible of health risks.

With our present-day knowledge about immune functions we could do a much better job in screening out people who are at risk, immune-compromised or who should not take the vaccine for other reasons. Applying this knowledge, this would actually decrease the number of people that would come down with adverse health effects. We can also educate people about how to support their body’s immune system with good health practices and special nutrients, thus again reducing the risk of adverse side effects to a minimum.

As Air Force Col. Dr. Tony Kern explained at http://www.antiagingforme.com, this is everybody’s war. We all must participate to achieve the highest level of defense.

Now it’s time to give us your feedback.

DOES THE PRESENT CDC APPROACH MAKE YOU FEEL SAFE? DO YOU FEEL PROTECTED? DO YOU THINK THAT CDC HAS DONE EVERYTHING THEY COULD DO TO PROTECT YOU?

Think about this: Had the MIT/Yale or the 5-CITY SCENARIO really happened as described, would you later say: “Tough, bad things happen, the CDC did the right thing,” or “they knew how to prevent it, but government incompetence screwed it up again” - very much like pre-9/11?

Are you satisfied with the steps CDC has taken? YES NO

Should government dictate the vaccination for everybody, or should it be on a voluntary basis?

No matter what, in your opinion, does it make sense for the CDC to withhold the smallpox vaccine from who’d like to take it, on his/her own risk, even willing to pay for it?

Please E-mail your response to: drkugler3@verizon.net

Questions we posed to CDC; no response as of the publishing of this paper.

Q.: Why is CDC against preemptive smallpox vaccinations?
A.:

Q.: Does CDC have any proof for their thinking that terrorists may not a) have samples of the smallpox virus and b) being able to grow it to amounts that would be required for a terrorist attack?
A.:

Q.: With some countries sympathizing with the terrorists, and all the financial support they apparently have, couldn’t they easily overcome minor hurdles, like needing more than a basement laboratory to grow the virus? A.:

Q.: How likely is it that terrorists, having sufficient amounts of the virus, would be able to infect 1,000 people in a large city in the course of one day? A.:

Q.: As we recall, right after 9/11 the directive from Washington to the CDC was: Develop a method to protect the American people from a terrorist smallpox attack. While the CDC arguments are quite good and impressive, they are merely reasons for not doing so; CDC has really failed to develop a method to protect us. Correct? A.:

Q.: In the light that the CDC opinions are merely opinions, and don’t have any proof to rule out a terrorist smallpox attack, and also knowing that any vaccinated person is a firewall in itself against the spread of smallpox, WHAT SENSE DOES IT MAKE TO REFUSE THE SMALLPOX VACCINE TO PEOPLE WHO WOULD LIKE TO TAKE IT ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS, WILLING TO TAKE IT ON THEIR OWN RISK? A.:

Q.: In your opinion, what vaccination level of population would be reasonably sufficient to put us all at ease, assure that any smallpox attack would not turn into a major epidemic? 50%+? 60%+?
A.:

Q.: According to the MIT/YALE scenario - - 1,000 people infected with smallpox in a city of 10 million - - resulting in 367,000 cases of smallpox and 110,000 deaths - - where is the “protection”? Would CDC consider all these victims, or any victims, resulting from infection and detection past 4 days, as “expandable”?
A.:

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